The Evolution of Intelligence Analytic Methodology:From A Perspective of National Security Intelligence Analysis

Authors

Jin-hu GAO, International Studies College，National University of Defense Technology，Nanjing 210039

Keywords

intelligence analytic methodology, positivism, falsificationism, cognitive psychology, structured analytic techniques, national security intelligence

Abstract

[Purpose/significance]The thesis reviews the evolution of the intelligence analytic methodology and illuminates its development path，which aims at providing reference for the improvement in intelligence analysis.[Method/process]Through the elaboration of methodological evolution，the thesis proceeds to distinguish the national security intelligence analysis from the information analysis，summing up the influence of the analytic methodology on analysis.[Result/conclusion]Intelligence analysis is far more complex than conventional information analysis，while the latter is unable to cope with the intricate issues in national security intellgience analysis.Therefore，new analytic methodology should be constructed on the basis of falsificationism and cognitive psychology.

First Page

12

Recommended Citation

GAO, Jin-hu (2020) "The Evolution of Intelligence Analytic Methodology:From A Perspective of National Security Intelligence Analysis," Scientific Information Research: Vol. 2: Iss. 1, Article 2.
Available at: https://eng.kjqbyj.com/journal/vol2/iss1/2

Reference

[1] Davis，Jack.Intelligence analysts and policymakers：Benefits and dangers of tensions in the relationship[J].Intelligence and National Security，21（06）：1007.
[2] RHERSON K H，PHERSON R H.Critical thinking for strategic intelligence[M].Washington D.C.：CQ Press，2013：53.
[3] 高金虎，张魁.情报分析方法论[M].北京：金城出版社，2016.
[4] 卡尔·冯·克劳塞维茨.战争论[M].北京：商务印书馆，1978：69.
[5] 毛泽东.毛泽东选集[C].北京：人民出版社，1964：164-165.
[6] 张晓军.美国军事情报理论研究[M].北京：军事科学出版社，2007：86.
[7] 高金虎.美国战略情报与决策体制研究[M].西安：陕西人民出版社，2004：52.
[8] ROOSEVELT K，ed.War Report of the OSS[M].New York：Walker&Co.，1976：167.
[9] MOORE D T.Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis[M].Washington D.C.：National Defense Intelligence College，2007.
[10] 刘昶.人心中的历史[M].成都：四川人民出版社，1987：49.
[11] Center for the Study of Intelligence.The Office of Strategic Services：America's First Intelligence Agence[EB/OL].[2019-11-10].https：//www.cia.gov/library/publications/intelligence-history/oss.
[12] KATZ B M.Foreign Intelligence[M].Cambridge，Mass.：Harvard University Press，1989：14-15.
[13] KENT S.Estimates and Influence[J].Studies in Intelligence.Summer，1968.
[14] LANGER W L.In and Out of the Ivory Tower[M].New York：Neale Watson Academic Publications，Inc.，1977：190-191.
[15] STEURY D P.Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates[J].Lulu. com，2011.
[16] HEUER R J.Quantitative Approaches to Political Intelligence：The CIA Experience[M].Boulder，CO：Westview Press，1978.
[17] CLAUSER J.An Introduction to Intelligence Research and Analysis[M].Lanham，MD:Scarecrow Press.Inc.，2010.
[18] DULLES A W. The Craft of Intelligence[M].New York：Harper&Row，1965：155.
[19] SHULSKY A N，SCHMITT G J.Silent Warfare[M].Washington D.C.：Potomac Books，Inc.，2002：171-173.
[20] COOPER J R.Curing Analytic Pathologies：Pathways to Improved Intelligence Analysis[M].Washington D. C.：Central Intelligence Agency，Center for the Study of Intelligence，2005：26.
[21] National Research Council.Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow：Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences[M].Washington D.C.：National Academies Press，2011：24.
[22] FINGAR T .Reducing Uncertainty：Intelligence Analysis and National Security[M].Stanford CA：Stanford University Press，2011.
[23] 波普尔.科学发现的逻辑[M].北京：科学出版社，1986：27.
[24] ADAMS J L.Conceptual Blockbusting：A Guide to Better Ideas[M].New York：W.W.Norton，1980：3.
[25] 波普尔.客观知识——一个进化论的研究[M].上海：上海译文出版社，1987：270.
[26] 艾伦·查尔默斯.科学究竟是什么[M].北京：商务印书馆，1982：41.
[27] 罗伯特·L.索尔所，M.金伯利·麦克林，奥托·H.麦克林.认知心理学[M].上海：上海人民出版社，2008：78.
[28] HEUER R J.Psychology of Intelligence Analysis[M].Washington D.C.：Central Intelligence Agency，1999：8.
[29] [英]卡尔·波普尔.猜想与反驳[M].上海：上海译文出版社，1986：40.
[30] HUNTINGTON S P.The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order[M].New York：Simon and Schuster，1996：29.
[31] MACEACHIN D.Strategic Analysis，in Transforming U.S.Intelligence[C].Washington D.C.：Georgetown University Press，2006：117.
[32] DAVIS J.Improving Intelligence Analysis at CIA：Dick Heuer’s Contribution to Intelligence Analysis.in Heuer，Richards J.Psychology of Intelligence Analysis[M].Washington D.C.：Central Intelligence Agency，1999：5.
[33] HEUER R J.，PHERSON R H.Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis[M].Washington D.C.：CQ Press，2015：8.
[34] 高金虎.试论批判性思维在情报分析中的应用[J].情报杂志，2013，23（09）：1-5+33.
[35] Johnson R.Developing a Taxonomy of Intelligence Analysis Variables[J].Studies in Intelligence，47（3），2003.
[36] 马克思恩格斯全集（第3卷）[M].北京：人民出版社，1972：561.
[37] WOHLSTETTER R.Pearl Harbor：Warning and Decision[M].Stanford：Stanford University Press，1962：56.
[38] DEMPSEY M E.Joint Publication 2-0，Joint Intelligence[M].Executive Summary，2007.
[39] WHALEY B.Toward a General Theory of Deception[J].Journal of Strategic Studies，1982，5(01):178-192.
[40] 黄顺基.问题、逻辑与理论创新[J].中国人民大学学报，2004（04）：39.
[41] 贾向桐.论当代大数据发展中的理论终结论[J].南开学报（哲学社会科学版），2019（02）：124-131.
[42] 谢尔曼·肯特.战略情报：为美国世界政策服务[M].北京：金城出版社，2012：53.