The Use of Regression Analysis in Intelligence Forecasting ——An Election Analysis Based on the Keys to the White House Model

Authors

Long JIN, Institute of International Relations，National University of Defense Technology，Nanjing 210039
Jie WEN, Institute of International Relations，National University of Defense Technology，Nanjing 210039

Keywords

regression analysis, the keys to the White House model, 2020 US presidential election, Trump, intelligence prediction

Abstract

[Purpose/significance]With the continuous evolution of intelligence analysis methods，the use of regression analysis for intelligence prediction has been applied to some extent.This paper tries to apply regression analysis to general election prediction and judge the trend of candidates' votes by selecting appropriate variables for regression analysis，which is of practical significance for expanding intelligence analysis methods.[Method/process]By judging the key elements of‘keys to the White House’model，variables were selected for regression analysis to predict the vote of Trump in the 2020 election.[Result/conclusion]In the current situation，only four of the 13 key elements are opposed to the current administration，judging that Trump can win the election in 2020.The percentage of the popular vote is nearly linearly correlated with the number of true key factors，and the regression analysis shows that Trump can get more than half of the popular vote，but there are still many factors that will change the campaign dynamics of both parties in the rest of his term.

First Page

59

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.19809/j.cnki.kjqbyj.2020.02.005

Recommended Citation

JIN, Long and WEN, Jie (2020) "The Use of Regression Analysis in Intelligence Forecasting ——An Election Analysis Based on the Keys to the White House Model," Scientific Information Research: Vol. 2: Iss. 2, Article 5.
DOI: 10.19809/j.cnki.kjqbyj.2020.02.005
Available at: https://eng.kjqbyj.com/journal/vol2/iss2/5

Reference

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