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Journal of Scientific Information Research

Keywords

online public opinion; reversal event; evolution of public opinion; media trust; simulation analysis

Abstract

[Purpose/significance] In recent years, frequent reversal events have negatively impacted the online media environment, leading to an increasing number of skeptical voices during the evolution of public opinion.These doubts are no longer merely emotional outbursts but also involve rational understanding of the event's authenticity. This study aims to gain a deeper understanding of this phenomenon and attempts to reveal the impact mechanism of frequent reversal events on the evolution of online public opinion. [Method/process] Through surveys and computer simulation experiments, the study analyzes various elements such as individuals, media environment, and evolution patterns in online public opinion,then according to the analysis result, by incorporating user behavior into the modeling of public opinion evolution, conducted the simulation experiments. [Result/conclusion] In the context of frequent reversals, public trust in online media significantly decreases. This lack of trust affects individual behavior, with users' willingness to express opinions being heightened, while there is no significant impact on their willingness to like or change their viewpoints. Simulation experiments reveal that frequent reversals somewhat slow down the process of group polarization and promote the manifestation of rational components in the public opinion space. Research results are significant for understanding the dual impact of reversal events on both emotion and rationality, as well as their influence on public opinion evolution. Additionally, they provide reference for public opinion guidance and management.

First Page

23

Last Page

33

Submission Date

April 2025

Revision Date

May 2025

Acceptance Date

May 2025

Publication Date

January 2026

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

ꎺ 10.19809/j.cnki.kjqbyj.2026.01.003

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