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Journal of Scientific Information Research

Keywords

technological security risk; weak signals; perception paths; multi-source data fusion; weak signal detection model; ELO rating system; dynamic evaluation framework of weak signal

Abstract

[Purpose/significance] As a supplement to traditional strategic intelligence analysis methods, the perception of weak signals of sci-tech security risks plays a crucial role in the monitoring and early warning of sci-tech security. It can identify early ambiguous information that foreshadows major future changes, thus seizing the initiative for strategic decision-making in the context of the global sci-tech competition landscape. [Method/process] Taking the weak signals of sci-tech security risks as the research object, this paper systematically defines the conceptual connotation of weak signals and their relationships with sci-tech security risks and intelligence analysis from the perspective of information science, and emphasizes that weak signals are essentially early information clues pointing to the evolution direction of risks, rather than the results of risk judgment themselves. On this basis, it analyzes the typical types of sci-tech security risks that weak signals may indicate, constructs an intelligence perception process of weak signals for sci-tech security scenarios, and proposes an evaluation framework integrating the weak signal detection model and the dynamic relative expectation mechanism to support the continuous tracking of changes in the importance of weak signals. Furthermore, combined with different application scenarios, it discusses the application modes and analytical boundaries of the weak signal perception methods. [Result/conclusion] Despite certain limitations of this research, the findings help to improve the proactivity and systematicness of sci-tech security risk identification, and provide intelligence support for sci-tech security decision-making.

First Page

14

Last Page

23

Submission Date

05-Jan-2026

Revision Date

12-Feb-2026

Acceptance Date

11-Mar-2026

Published Date

01-Apr-2026

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Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.19809/j.cnki.kjqbyj.2026.02.002

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